the state of commerce 2025
Building trust in every transaction
The state of commerce is continually reshaped by various trends, including the pandemic, supply chain issues, inflation, sustainability and digital transformation. In 2025, both past effects and current pressures will influence the industry.
Retail leaders will closely monitor the growth of value-oriented consumers, reevaluate success metrics beyond conversion, and consider macroeconomic conditions amid global disruptions and potential domestic policy changes like increased tariffs.
The 2024 has shown positive trends, with ecommerce sales rising 7% year over year across North America, following a record-setting holiday season that also saw a 7% sales increase in online sales in the region.
Why CLTV will dominate in 2025
Although maximizing customer lifetime value (CLTV) has been around for years, this year presents a compelling case for moving beyond CLTV lip service and hold the metric up as a guiding light for retail success. The change is born of four developments:
Ecommerce has entered a new era: Investors are demanding that the retailers they invest in transform their mindset from the pandemic days of growth at any cost to profitable growth for the long haul.
Consumers are looking to build relationships with retailers that put customers first in terms of experiences and convenience. And not just any relationships. Consumers want relationships built on trust. That yearning provides a powerful differentiator for any retailer willing to put in the work to establish it.
The tools for merchants to build those relationships are out there. A slew of companies have emerged to provide AI-driven solutions that help online merchants determine what shoppers want and need in the moment, whether they are searching, browsing, checking out, seeking customer support, asking for a refund or returning a product.
And finally, reliable formulas for tracking CLV are available, given modern businesses’ agility with data and insights into consumers’ behavior and desires.
Better customer experiences lead to higher repeat purchases and, ultimately, profitable growth.
— Raj Ramanand, Co-Founder & CEO, Signifyd
Abercrombie & Fitch’s Antonio Colicchio on the importance of CLTV
Omnichannel strategies for 2025 success
Consumers expect seamless shopping experiences, moving between online and in-store options without thinking about channels. Offering services like buy online, pick up in store (BOPIS) or curbside pickup is crucial, with over 70% of shoppers relying on merchant websites and 61% visiting stores. Mobile apps are essential for 49% of users, and 35% engage with brands through social media. Although social media remains a smaller channel, its growth potential is significant, especially with platforms like TikTok driving social commerce.
of customers expect
BOPIS options, yet
many brand fall short
The popularity of BOPIS surged during the pandemic. Now 42% of surveyed consumers expect BOPIS options, and 34% expect curbside pickup. Retailers lagging in fulfillment risk disappointing a significant portion of their customers, emphasizing the importance of building robust omnichannel strategies.
See how retailers are protecting the omnichannel experience from fraud.
What fulfillment options do you expect to have when ordering online?
Boost CLTV with personalization tactics
The promise of personalization in ecommerce has evolved significantly over the years. A decade ago, businesses highlighted their ability to use data and AI for relevant product recommendations. Today, personalization is crucial for enhancing customer lifetime value. According to a Twilio survey, 89% of business executives view personalization as vital for future success.
Effective personalization begins with the shopping experience and fosters trust, ultimately driving better customer loyalty. It informs merchandising and marketing strategies, especially in a post-third-party cookie world, where brands are increasingly relying on first-party data provided by consumers.
Canadian Tire gamifies loyalty personalization
The 2025 consumer: trends and insights
A Signifyd analysis revealed that the percentage of consumers identifying as “value-seeking” rose to 43% by late last year, up from 27% in 2022 during peak inflation.
In a consumer survey, only 48% expressed optimism about the economy for the upcoming year, a slight increase from 46% in mid-2023. Most consumers plan to spend the same in 2025 as they did in 2024, with more indicating increased spending across categories.
Consumers are facing a zero tolerance era. Merchants face challenges in retaining customers, as 82% of respondents indicated they would tolerate a poor experience only twice before switching retailers. Notably, 13% said they wouldn’t give a second chance after one bad experience, an increase from 9% in 2023. Additionally, 43% of consumers reported making purchases from competitors of their preferred brands in the past year, reflecting their value-seeking mindset.
Explore more consumer behavior insights from our ecommerce data reports.
“Value-seeking” consumer growth
Winning with returns & fast refund strategies
In 2025, retail will seriously address the growing challenge of returns, which are becoming an existential threat. In 2024, U.S. shoppers returned an estimated $890 billion in goods, with ecommerce returns making up about one-third of that total. In the UK, online returners are expected to bring back around £27 billion ($34 billion), with serial returners responsible for about £6.6 billion ($8.4 billion).
Returns create significant costs for merchants, turning profitable sales into losses due to expensive reverse logistics. Many returned items are unsellable, either damaged or out of season. Additionally, a rising number of returns are fraudulent—an issue that cost merchants approximately $50.5 billion in 2023.
To enhance customer loyalty, retailers will increasingly adopt instant refunds, with leaders providing refunds within seconds of return requests from trusted customers. This shift toward “personalized returns” will allow retailers to manage risks while improving the customer experience.
lost to ecommerce return fraud in 2024
Learn how to prevent return abuse while protecting loyal customers.
Tuckernuck’s CFO on handling fraudulent returns
Building trust by unleashing the power of loyalty programs
In 2025, loyalty programs will undergo significant changes as consumers demand more authenticity and relationship-building over transactional interactions. With the rise of sophisticated consumers, traditional loyalty programs risk becoming outdated.
As these programs encourage customers to create online accounts, they inadvertently create targets for fraudsters. Account takeovers, which surged by 18% in 2024, have left many customers vulnerable, as dormant accounts often contain valuable information including loyalty points and personal details.
Research indicates that the average U.S. consumer belongs to 18 loyalty programs but actively uses only nine. This problem is especially pronounced in airline frequent flyer accounts, which are frequently exploited for their loyalty perks.
In 2024, 60% of online merchants reported an increase in account takeovers, underscoring the need for stronger account security. With 91% of consumers prioritizing secure shopping environments, brands must rethink their loyalty programs to build trust and authenticity.
Research indicates that the average U.S. consumer belongs to 18 loyalty programs but actively uses only nine. This problem is especially pronounced in airline frequent flyer accounts, which are frequently exploited for their loyalty perks.
In 2024, 60% of online merchants reported an increase in account takeovers, underscoring the need for stronger account security. With 91% of consumers prioritizing secure shopping environments, brands must rethink their loyalty programs to build trust and authenticity.
Read more about loyalty program fraud and how to prevent it.
State of Commerce Report 2025
The state of commerce is continually reshaped by various trends, including the pandemic, supply chain issues, inflation, sustainability, and digital transformation. In 2025, both past effects and current pressures will influence the industry.