Holiday Ecommerce Sales Growth Won’t Be Enough to Top European Inflation, Study Says

LONDON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–While inflation is slowing across Europe, the deceleration in price hikes won’t be dramatic enough to turn merchants’ fortunes around, says a new analysis by commerce protection provider Signifyd.

While inflation is slowing across Europe, the deceleration in price hikes won’t be dramatic enough to turn merchants’ fortunes around, says a new analysis by commerce protection provider Signifyd.

Signifyd projects that online sales will finish up 3% over last holiday season, with a 2% increase in sales during what’s known as the Cyber Five, the shopping festival centered on Black Friday and anchored by Cyber Monday. The growth predictions for EMEA, based on transaction intelligence from Signifyd’s Commerce Network of thousands of merchants, fall below the current inflation rate.

“In Europe, we’re gonna see very similar trends to everywhere else in Western economies,” said Signifyd Chief Customer Officer J. Bennett. “So, the same trends of high fuel prices. Right? Winter’s coming. People are saving up for that. Groceries are up. Consumers will continue to be cautious spenders throughout the holiday season, looking for the right promotions and the best value for their money.”

Signifyd will provide live data updates on holiday sales throughout the season — including overall sales, sales by device, fraud trends and revised season sales projections — on its Holiday Season Pulse tracker.

Signifyd’s prediction shows the Christmas season getting off to a solid start with October sales coming in 5.5% ahead of a year ago, before cooling off considerably. In fact, sales will remain flat (+0.5%) in November and rebound in December, up 4.6% year-over-year, according to Signifyd’s data analysis.

While the sales numbers for the season overall are less than spectacular, Signifyd Data Analyst Phelim Killough said the figures should be viewed in a bigger context.

“They’re perhaps underwhelming from a year-over-year perspective when compared to the double-digit, year-over-year growth from seasons past,” said Killough, who conducted Signifyd’s analysis. “But we’re building off a higher foundation. We haven’t seen a decline in year-over-year sales since the onset of COVID. We’ve simply seen a slowing in growth.”

Despite the muted projections, European merchants can take some comfort in September’s online performance. Sales in EMEA were up 9% in September over year-ago figures, according to Signifyd’s Ecommerce Pulse data.

Signifyd’s projections are based on recent transaction and growth trends and seasonality factors. Its pulse data is derived from transactions on Signifyd’s Commerce Network of thousands of brands and merchants. For a tutorial explaining the methods and meanings behind Signifyd’s Holiday Season Pulse Tracker visit Signifyd’s YouTube channel.